Financing · Analysis

Rates at 7%: What the Fed's Hike Means for Flip Financing and Exits

Prime is at 7% and the 30-year mortgage rate is above 7.25%. Higher rates reach flippers in three places: the rehab loan, the buyer's mortgage and the rental refinance.

By Flipper News Staff · · 2 min read

A person signing paperwork at a desk
Photo: Scott Graham / Unsplash

Why it matters

  • Many floating-rate rehab and bridge loans are priced off prime, which rose to 7% on Sept. 17.
  • The average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.28% on Oct. 1, raising monthly payments for buyers of finished flips.
  • Higher long-term rates shrink the loan a rental's rent can support, which matters for investors who refinance instead of selling.

Analysis: this piece includes our interpretation of the facts reported.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on Sept. 16, to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first increase since July 2023. Major banks raised their prime rate to 7% the next day.

Longer-term rates moved further. The 10-year Treasury yield ended September at 5.29%, up half a point for the month, according to Treasury Department data. On Oct. 1, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate had risen to 7.28%, from 7.03% a week earlier and 6.34% a year earlier.

For flippers, those moves show up in three places.

1. The rehab loan

Many hard money and bridge loans carry fixed rates set at closing, so existing loans may not change. Loans that float are often priced at a spread over prime, and their cost rises at the next reset.

On a $250,000 floating-rate loan, a quarter-point increase adds about $52 a month in interest. That's small on its own, but it adds up over a project that runs long, and lenders may also raise rates or fees on new loans. The Hard Money Loan Cost tool shows a loan's full cost, including points and fees.

2. The buyer's mortgage

Most flips are sold to buyers who finance with a mortgage. Higher rates raise their monthly payment and can shrink the price they can afford.

On a $300,000 30-year loan, principal and interest come to about $2,053 a month at 7.28%, compared with about $1,865 at a year-ago rate of 6.34%. That's about $188 a month more for the same loan.

When buyers can afford less, homes can take longer to sell or sell for less. The Break-Even Sale Price calculator shows how much room you have.

3. The rental refinance

Investors who keep a renovated home as a rental often refinance into a DSCR loan, which is sized on the rent. When rates rise, the same rent supports a smaller loan.

At $2,600 a month in rent, with $600 a month in taxes and insurance and a 1.20 minimum coverage ratio, the rent supports a 30-year loan of about $229,700 at 7.25%, $218,700 at 7.75% and $208,500 at 8.25%. Each half-point increase leaves roughly $10,000 to $11,000 more of the investor's cash in the property.

These are illustrative rates, not quotes. The DSCR Refinance Sizer runs the same math with your own numbers.

What flippers can do

  • Check how your loan is priced. Know whether your rate is fixed or floating, and when it resets.
  • Price time. Every month of delay costs more when rates are higher. The Holding Cost Timer shows what a month costs.
  • Stress-test the exit. Run your sale or refinance at a rate a half point higher than today's.

Sources

The Flip Sheet

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