Deal Analyzer

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How to use the Deal Analyzer

1
Start with the two big numbers
Enter the purchase price and the after-repair value. If you're unsure of the ARV, run ARV from Comps first.
2
Add the rehab, then pad it
Use your contractor's bid and keep at least a 10% contingency. Most flips that lose money lose it in the rehab.
3
Copy your lender's terms
Loan percentage, rate and points come straight from the term sheet. Paying cash? Set the loan to 0%.
4
Be honest about time
Every extra month adds interest and holding costs. The typical U.S. flip took about five months in mid-2026.
5
Add closing costs on both ends
Buying costs are usually 1–3% of the price; selling costs 6–9%, including commissions.
6
Read the grade, then the coaching line
Below a B, the coaching line shows the purchase price that reaches a 15% margin. That's your negotiating number.

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Worked example

A buyer finds a three-bedroom ranch listed at $240,000. Updated homes nearby sold for about $380,000. The contractor bids $55,000, and the buyer adds a 10% contingency. A hard money lender offers 85% of cost at 11% and 2 points. The plan is to sell in six months, with $1,200 a month in taxes, insurance and utilities.

The result: about $17,900 of profit, a 4.7% margin and a D grade. Financing costs about $19,200 and closing costs on both ends about $35,200.

The coaching line shows that an offer near $204,000 would reach a 15% margin. The buyer counters there instead of paying the asking price.

The formula

Rehab      = Rehab budget × (1 + Contingency)
Loan       = (Price + Rehab) × Loan %
Financing  = Loan × Rate × Months ÷ 12 + Loan × Points
Profit     = ARV − Price − Rehab − Financing − Holding − Buying costs − Selling costs
Cash       = Price + Rehab + Buying costs + Financing + Holding − Loan
Margin     = Profit ÷ ARV
Return     = Profit ÷ Cash

The grade is based on margin: A at 15% or more, B at 10%, C at 5%, D at 0%, and F below zero. Margin on the sale price shows how far prices could fall before you lose money.

Common mistakes

Using the seller's ARV. Base it on closed sales of similar renovated homes, not on listings or the seller's hopes.
Leaving out the contingency. Rehab budgets run over far more often than they come in under.
Underestimating time. A two-month delay can erase a thin profit. Check the Holding Cost Timer.
Forgetting selling costs. Commissions and closing costs on the sale often add up to 8% of the price or more.

Questions people ask

Why does this tool charge interest on the full loan? Many rehab loans charge interest only on funds drawn so far, which costs less. We assume the full amount so the estimate errs on the safe side. The Hard Money Loan Cost tool lets you model drawn balances.

What's a good grade? Many experienced flippers look for at least a B, a 10% margin or more, to leave room for surprises.

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