Find the Deal: How to Screen a Flip and Set Your Offer

Most flips are won or lost before you buy. The price you pay sets the ceiling on your profit, and it's the one number you fully control. This playbook walks through the routine experienced flippers use to go from a listing to an offer.

Step 1: Screen fast

You'll look at many more houses than you buy, so start with a quick filter. The 70% Rule Calculator takes three numbers, a rough after-repair value, a rough repair estimate and the asking price, and tells you whether the deal is even close.

If the asking price is far above the rule's maximum, move on unless you have a reason to think the seller will negotiate.

Step 2: Pin down the after-repair value

The after-repair value, or ARV, is what the house should sell for once it's renovated. Every other number depends on it, so it deserves the most care.

• Use closed sales, not listings.
• Pick homes that are similar in size, age, style and condition after renovation, and close by. Within about a mile and the last six months is a common starting point.
• Adjust for differences: a missing garage, an extra bathroom, a busier street.

The ARV from Comps tool averages up to three adjusted comps and shows a low and high estimate. When in doubt, use the low one.

Step 3: Walk the property and price the work

Bring a contractor if you can. Note the big-ticket items first: roof, foundation, electrical, plumbing, heating and cooling. Then list the finishes. The Rehab Budget Builder gives you a line-item budget with a contingency.

Step 4: Run the full numbers

The Deal Analyzer adds financing, holding and closing costs on both ends, then grades the deal. Pay attention to two results:

• Profit margin on the sale price. This is your cushion if the house sells for less than planned. Many experienced flippers want at least 10%.
• The coaching line. If the grade is low, it shows the purchase price that would reach a 15% margin.

Step 5: Set your maximum, then your opening offer

The Max Offer Calculator turns your profit target and costs into the most you can pay. That's your walk-away number. Your opening offer should be lower, to leave room to negotiate.

Step 6: Know when to walk away

Pass on the deal if:

• The comps don't support the ARV you need.
• The rehab has unknowns you can't price, such as foundation or sewer problems, without an inspection.
• The seller won't come down to your maximum.

Walking away from a thin deal is not a loss. With typical U.S. flip margins at their narrowest in years, according to ATTOM's latest data, the deals you don't do matter as much as the ones you do.

Tools for this stage

• 70% Rule Calculator: the ten-second screen
• ARV from Comps: the number everything depends on
• Deal Analyzer: the full picture and a grade
• Max Offer Calculator: your walk-away number
• Break-Even Sale Price: your floor