Why it matters
- Newly pending home sales fell 8.5% from a year earlier and 11.2% from August, Zillow's September Market Report said Oct. 6.
- Homes took a median of 29 days to go pending, two days longer than a year earlier, and 27.4% of listings had a price cut.
- Zillow chief economist Mischa Fisher said he expects sales to stay below last year's pace through the fourth quarter.
Newly pending U.S. home sales fell 8.5% in September from a year earlier and 11.2% from August, Zillow said in its September Market Report released Tuesday, Oct. 6. Mortgage rates ended the month at 7.28%, the highest since November 2023, according to Freddie Mac data cited by Zillow.
Pending sales are contracts signed but not yet closed, so they point to where closings are headed. For flippers listing a finished house this fall, the report says fewer buyers are signing deals.
How much did home sales fall in September?
Closed sales of existing homes fell 2.5% from a year earlier and 5.6% from August, according to Zillow's preliminary estimate. It counted 319,346 homes sold in September.
| Zillow measure, September 2026 | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Newly pending sales | — | -8.5% from a year earlier |
| Closed sales (estimate) | 319,346 | -2.5% from a year earlier |
| Typical home value | $366,913 | +1% from a year earlier, -0.5% from August |
| Homes for sale | 1.39 million | +2.5% from a year earlier |
| New listings | 343,311 | +0.4% from a year earlier |
| Median days to pending | 29 | 2 days longer than a year earlier |
| Listings with a price cut | 27.4% | up from 26.2% a year earlier |
Zillow said the monthly mortgage payment on a typical home is $1,922, assuming 20% down and excluding taxes and insurance. That is 6.7% higher than a year ago.
"The for-sale market's slowdown was predictable given where mortgage rates currently stand," Fisher said. "We expect sales to remain lower than last year through the fourth quarter."
Which markets slowed the most?
In Atlanta, sales fell 11.2% from a year earlier, and Providence and San Diego each fell 9.3%. Seattle sales fell 8.7%, while its inventory rose 20.3%. Sales rose in Oklahoma City (7.5%), Louisville (7.2%) and Buffalo (6.3%).
Home values fell most from a year earlier in Austin (-3.9%), Las Vegas (-2.7%) and Seattle (-2.2%). They rose most in Chicago (5.1%), Hartford (5.0%) and Milwaukee (4.9%).
What does this mean for flippers?
Slower contract signings usually mean longer listing times and more pressure to cut prices. Zillow's report shows both creeping up. Home values also slipped 0.5% from August, which echoes Cotality's forecast of winter price declines.
- Use fresh comps. The ARV from Comps tool helps you set a resale value from recent sales, not spring prices.
- Plan for a longer sale. The Holding Cost Timer shows what each extra month on the market costs.
- Bid with less room for error. The Max Offer Calculator works back from a realistic resale price.
Fisher said it is "not out of the question" that rates fall as quickly as they rose, which would bring buyers and sellers back. Until then, our playbook on deciding whether to sell or hold covers your options. For this week's financing picture, see Mortgage Applications Fall 4.2% as 30-Year Rate Hits 7.49%.
Sources
- Zillow Group, Zillow's September Market Report shows an early winter in the housing market as newly pending sales fall 8.5% (Oct. 6, 2026)
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct. 1, 2026)